| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| bumblebeeboy2 |
Posted - 08/19/2004 : 15:12:16
A well known one, but an interesting one!
You are a participant on "Let's Make a Deal." Monty Hall shows you
three closed doors. He tells you that two of the closed doors have a
goat behind them and that one of the doors has a new car behind it.
You pick one door, but before you open it, Monty opens one of the two
remaining doors and shows that it hides a goat (he does this knowing it has a goat behind it). He then offers you a chance to switch doors with the remaining closed door. Is it to your advantage to do so?
And it's hard to be a human being, and it's harder as anything else, and I'm lonesome when you're around, and I'm never lonesome when I'm by myself, and I miss you when you're around. |
| 12 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| GypsyDeath |
Posted - 09/06/2004 : 07:04:20
I agree. Theres no logic in that.
I drink and smoke
Until I choke
Until I'm broke
Cos' I want too
If We Sleep Together, Will You Like Me Better? |
| TheCroutonFuton |
Posted - 08/20/2004 : 11:59:41
Right, but you don't have the option to choose the third door that he showed you anymore. So now you only have 2 choices, 1 of them is a car one is a goat...so that's still just 50/50...
Meh...alright. I remember doing this. I guess it does kindof make sense..It's just that at the end it's only A B..
1: Good Bad
2: Bad Good
C is out of the question now. I see what you mean, though...I understand it but it's just not very logical, that's all.
"Freedom is a state of mind and the condition and position of your ass. Free your mind and your ass will follow." - Funkadelic |
| shineoftheever |
Posted - 08/20/2004 : 11:55:25
This is, at first look, way counter-intuitive, so here's an attempt at an explanation:
Take a look at this matrix of possibilities:
Door
~~~~
case A B C
~~~~
1 bad bad good
2 bad good bad
3 good bad bad
Let's assume you choose door A -- you have a 1/3 chance of a good prize.
But (this is key) Monty knows what is behind each door, and shows a bad one.
In cases 1 and 2, he eliminates doors B and C respectively (which happen to be the only remaining bad door) so a good door is left: SWITCH!
Only in case 3 (you lucked out in your original 1 in 3 chances) does switching hurt you.
So, your probability goes up from 1/3 to 2/3 if you switch after being shown a bad door.
 "tk-tk-tka-chk-ch-tk-tttt-whaaa-chk-tk-tk" |
| darwin |
Posted - 08/20/2004 : 10:40:09
Switch - when they open one of the remaining doors it gives you some information that the unopened door is more likely to be the good one. Not a very good explanation. Maybe someone can give a better explantion. This is fairly standard question in probability classes (The Monty Hall problem). |
| Carolynanna |
Posted - 08/20/2004 : 10:34:01
I can't take it!
You should switch, but damn its hard to explain.
The odds of you picking the right door the first time are not as good, so after he reveals the goat you should switch because of that. Does that make sense to anyone? Can anyone explain it better? |
| pfeffa |
Posted - 08/20/2004 : 10:24:41
Wouldn't that make it 50-50? It always seemed like the people who went with their initial instinct (first door they picked) instead of being tempted by that looney bastard Monty Hall got the better item. |
| jediroller |
Posted - 08/20/2004 : 04:35:56
You should not switch, but I forgot why. I don't really care, I already have a car, and the goat could take care of my lawn for me. Win-win situation.
--
Everything I say to you is gonna come out wrong anyway |
| Little Black Francis |
Posted - 08/20/2004 : 03:08:43
uh, yeah, it is to your advantage because...
Floops quesedillas zijn te vergelijken met het likken van fatsige Albert's aars nadat hij een fles laxeermiddel heeft leeggedronkenhehehahhahehehaha |
| bumblebeeboy2 |
Posted - 08/20/2004 : 02:11:30
wrong.
And it's hard to be a human being, and it's harder as anything else, and I'm lonesome when you're around, and I'm never lonesome when I'm by myself, and I miss you when you're around. |
| Little Black Francis |
Posted - 08/19/2004 : 15:55:19
uh, no, it's not to your advantage
Floops quesedillas zijn te vergelijken met het likken van fatsige Albert's aars nadat hij een fles laxeermiddel heeft leeggedronkenhehehahhahehehaha |
| Cheeseman1000 |
Posted - 08/19/2004 : 15:21:32
Whatever you come up with, Simon's wrong, just remember that.
Whether in this situation, or in general, Simon is wrong.
Kind regards,
Dr. Simon
Specialist In Broken Hearts |
| Carolynanna |
Posted - 08/19/2004 : 15:13:35
I took this in probability/forecasting class so I won't ruin it ;) |
